This week, the Bitcoin and crypto market is poised for significant movements driven by a series of high-impact events. From regulatory decisions to major industry conferences, these developments are expected to influence investor sentiment and market dynamics. Let’s delve into the top five events.
#1 Spot Bitcoin ETF News Coming This Week?
The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF continues to be the dominant topic in the crypto market. Over the past few days, various predictions have emerged as to when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could give the green light to a spot Bitcoin ETF. Valkyrie Investments, which itself has an active application with the SEC, predicts that the first step towards approval could come as early as the end of November.
Meanwhile, things have gone very quiet for Grayscale, which already received its ruling to convert the Bitcoin Trust (BGTC) into a spot ETF from the three-judge panel of the DC Circuit Court of Appeals on August 29. ETF expert Nate Geraci stated recently, “Surprised how quiet it is re: GBTC conversion to ETF. Grayscale won the court case on Aug 29th. Filed S-3 registration statement on Oct 19th. Court issued a formal mandate on ruling Oct 23rd. Apparently, still no word from SEC as to whether NYSE/Grayscale needs to refile 19b-4.”
Apparently, a statement from the SEC is only a matter of time and could come at any time. Last Friday, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart commented: “I’m with Nate here. Really thought we’d have gotten some better idea of timelines or next steps from either SEC or Grayscale regarding GBTC. Wasn’t sure how quickly it’d come but really thought we’d get *some* information by the end of this week (today). tick tock?”
#2 Fed Chairman Powell Speaks Twice
Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s speeches this week are highly anticipated due to their potential impact on financial markets. Powell speaks on Wednesday at 10:15 am EST and Thursday at 3:00 pm EST, following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) recent decision to pause interest rate hikes for a second consecutive time. This pause has sparked speculation about a shift to a more dovish monetary policy stance.
Notably, the focus now shifts to when the Fed might start cutting rates, with market analysts divided on whether it could happen in Q2, Q3, or Q4 of next year. A significant point of interest will be Powell’s view on Treasury yield changes.
During the FOMC press conference, he acknowledged their influence on monetary policy but insisted on the need for sustained changes rather than short-term fluctuations. This stance is critical because Treasury yields, which saw a notable drop from above 4.9% to finish the week at 4.59%, were one of the key drivers for the gold and Bitcoin prices as well as the stock markets more recently.
#3 Ripple vs. SEC Briefing Schedule
In the ongoing SEC v. Ripple case, a significant development is expected by November 9, according to the court order dated October 24, 2023. Both the SEC and Ripple are required to propose a briefing schedule concerning the charges levied in the case. This step follows the Programmatic Sales court ruling, leaving the issue of institutional sales of XRP still unresolved.
Since the October 24 court order, there have been no updates from either the SEC or Ripple regarding their discussions. If they fail to propose a briefing schedule, the court will set one. The lack of clarity has fueled debate among market observers about whether a settlement between both parties could still be possible.
#4 Ripple Swell In Dubai
Ripple takes center stage for a second reason this week: Ripple Swell. The annual conference is set to take place in Dubai from November 8 to 9, and the rumors are rife about a major announcement by Ripple. This anticipation is fueled by Ripple’s recent legal advancements with the SEC, which could pave the way for an IPO announcement.
Additionally, the conference is expected to delve into CBDCs and tokenization, areas where Ripple has shown significant interest. With the Ripple vs. SEC case’s briefing schedule deadline aligning with Ripple Swell, there’s also speculation about a possible settlement announcement.
#5 Arbitrum Ecosystem Incentives And Staking Go Live
This week marks a significant milestone for the Arbitrum ecosystem as its Short-Term Incentive Program goes live. The program aims to catalyze network growth and user engagement by allocating 50 million ARB tokens to protocols within the ecosystem, which could significantly boost liquidity.
In parallel, the Arbitrum DAO is in the midst of a crucial vote on a proposal that would enable ARB token staking, offering yields paid out in tokens. This decision, following a recommendation from PlutusDAO in September, involves the potential use of Arbitrum treasury funds to fund these staking rewards. The proposal outlines a tiered token allocation system, suggesting that 1% to 1.75% of the total 10 billion ARB supply be earmarked for staking rewards from the DAO’s treasury.
The community vote, scheduled to conclude on November 6, has so far seen a majority favoring the introduction of staking, indicating a strong likelihood of the proposal’s approval. This development could have a significant impact on the Arbitrum ecosystem, potentially attracting more participants and enhancing its market presence.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $35,136.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com